This is Part 7 and Final part of the series "Generative AI for Business Leaders"
Generative AI is advancing rapidly, bringing exciting new capabilities while also raising complex societal implications. In his lecture, the speaker explores how generative AI models are likely to evolve in the years ahead and how this evolution may transform industries and impact society.
How generative AI is likely to evolve?
There are several key dimensions along which generative AI algorithms will continue to improve:
Investment in algorithms. As more resources are poured into developing generative models like DALL-E, GPT-3, and others, the algorithms will become more sophisticated and lifelike in their outputs. Factors like accuracy, speed, and ability to generalize will see significant gains. For example, between GPT-2 and GPT-3, the number of parameters increased over 10X from 1.5 billion to 175 billion.
Reduced demand for computing power. Currently, running large AI models requires specialized computing hardware like GPUs. As algorithms become more efficient, they will be able to handle complex tasks even on consumer devices (Bommasani et al., 2021). This will make AI more accessible.
Allowance for more tokens. Length constraints on text generation will be relaxed, enabling AI systems to tackle more varied and multifaceted problems. They will become capable of synthesizing longer, more nuanced outputs. For instance, GPT-3 can generate coherent text up to 1000 tokens, compared to just 100 for GPT-2 (Brown et al., 2020).
More computational resources. In addition to GPUs, enhancements in CPU performance, memory, storage, and other factors will remove constraints that currently throttle AI capabilities (Amodei et al., 2022).
Together, these improvements will compound, allowing for creative new applications across industries like healthcare, education, media, and more. The speaker envisions generative AI being used in everyday business operations within just a few years.
The path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
While today's AI systems are narrow in their capabilities, the rapid evolution of generative models seems to be leading towards artificial general intelligence (AGI) - AI that can understand and reason across many domains at a human level. Though the timeline is debated, some experts predict AGI could arrive within the next few decades. This prospect is both exciting and concerning. AGI could help cure diseases, improve education, and solve complex global problems. But without proper safety measures, it poses risks like artificial super-intelligence that could escape human control. As we advance generative AI, maintaining oversight and alignment with human values is critical.
Society and the next frontier
While businesses will benefit enormously from generative AI, individuals and society at large will also be impacted in complex ways. The speaker highlights two frontiers:
AI intimacy. As personal AI assistants become commonplace, they will develop deep awareness of our behaviors, personalities, and inner lives (PwC, 2021). This could enable helpful applications like personalized health tracking, but also raises huge concerns around privacy and manipulation. Strict regulation will be needed.
Discovery of new knowledge. Today's AI models are limited to recombining existing information. But AGI may begin hypothesizing wholly novel concepts, theories, and insights beyond current human knowledge (Bostrom, 2016). This could lead to groundbreaking discoveries in fields like physics, medicine, and philosophy. It represents an exhilarating new phase in humanity's intellectual progress.
Conclusion
The evolution of generative AI represents a thrilling opportunity, but also poses risks if not guided carefully. As we accelerate progress in the field, maintaining human oversight and ethical standards is critical, especially as we approach possibilities like AGI. By proactively shaping the development of AI, we can maximize its benefits while minimizing harm. The choices we make today will determine whether humanity flourishes or falters alongside our increasingly intelligent machine creations.
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